Hello Neighbor,

I wanted to make you aware of an issue that will affect the Surf Drive area and our neighborhood. The Falmouth Coastal Resilience Committee has been studying the effects of climate change on Falmouth coastal areas and a draft report has been prepared specifically for the Surf Drive Area. There will be a public presentation of this draft report via a Zoom virtual meeting tomorrow evening, September 17 at 6:00 PM. The details for the meeting and the Zoom link can be found on the Town website by following the link:

http://www.falmouthmass.us/CivicAlerts.aspx?AID=769 (this took place on 09/17/20)

One of our OSDA members, John Mullin, has been following this study committee’s reviews and has offered his own thoughts which he wanted me to share with the Association. His comments, questions and concerns are listed below. I personally believe that careful reviews of the Study Committee’s assumptions, models, peer reviews and conclusions are warranted. The Old Stone Dock Association does not take a formal position on this work, however this issue seemed important enough to share with you so that you can form your own opinions.

Below are the comments, questions and references that John Mullin put together and wanted to share:

QUESTIONS with the Falmouth Coastal Resilience Plan and a call to ACTION
Although I join the majority in believing in global warming and the resulting sea level rise, I also believe in asking questions when a very consequential plan is based on a model that differs greatly from other models developed by the WHOI and from actual recorded seal level rise measurements by NOAA.

The newly published Coastal Resilience Plan (CRP) discusses taking actions costing tens of millions of dollars, abandoning town assets and ceasing maintenance and services to affected areas, all based on a very questionable sea level rise model.

 According to the CRP’s model the sea level will rise by approximately 3/4” each year through 2070. (this model predicts a sea level rise 660% greater than the WHOI model and actual measurements)
 A WHOI study in 2019 predicts a rise of 1/8” to 1/4” per year through 2050.
 The WHOI measured an actual rise of just less than 1/8” in 2019 in Woods Hole.
 And NOAA measurements of actual sea level rise from 1930 to present averages 2.92 millimeters or less than
1/8” per year in Woods Hole.

Based on the huge discrepancies between the models shown above and actual recorded sea level rise I call on all
Falmouth residents and board members to demand the following prior to the implementation of any of the CRP
recommendations:
1- A complete re-evaluation of the sea level rise model used
2- Due to the fact that all models are just predictions, the CRP should include an ongoing “predictive model” to
“actual” comparison and plan adjustment methodology.

A concerned property owner in the Surf Drive area.
John Mullin

References:
http://www.falmouthmass.us/1052/Coastal-Resilience-Planning-Surf-Drive-A
https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/sltrends/sltrends_station.shtml?id=8447930
https://www.whoi.edu/know-your-ocean/ocean-topics/climate-ocean/sea-level-rise/

I want to thank John for sharing his concerns with us and I invite you to participate in the meeting tomorrow evening.

Jay Thayer
President, Old Stone Dock Association[/fusion_text][/fusion_builder_column][/fusion_builder_row][/fusion_builder_container]